No. 1 Louisville to try and avoid upset at hands of Siena

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/22/2009 - Dayton, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Midwest Regional was full of upsets on the first day and the top-seeded Louisville Cardinals will try to avoid one themselves against the ninth-seeded Siena Saints in second-round play at UD Arena this evening. The survivor of this battle will move on to the Sweet 16 against either Arizona or Cleveland State next week.

There were five upsets in the Midwest Regional alone in the first round and Siena accounted for one of them, as they pulled off a dramatic 74-72 double- overtime win against eighth-seeded Ohio State on Friday. While it was a lower seed beating a higher one, it wasn't exactly a shocking result, as the Saints are a talented group that even trounced fourth-seeded Vanderbilt in the first round of this event last year. Winners of five straight, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference regular season and tourney champions have now matched the program record for victories in a season with 27.

As for Louisville, it swept both the Big East Tournament and regular season titles on its way to the No.1 overall seed in this event. The Cardinals got their run started on Friday with an expected, 74-54 victory over 16th-seeded Morehead State. It was the 11th straight victory for red-hot Louisville, which is now one win away from reaching the Sweet 16 for the 17th time in school history.

The Cardinals and Saints have met just one time previously on the hardwood, with Siena capturing a 78-71 victory all the way back in 1953.

Ronald Moore hit a three-pointer with three seconds left in the first overtime to keep the Saints' season alive and he made an identical three-point bucket with 3.9 seconds remaining in the second overtime to lift Siena over Ohio State in a thriller on Friday. It was a gritty performance by the Saints, who shot just 33.3 percent from the floor, including only 6-of-24 from downtown. Siena made up for some of those shooting woes by dominating the boards, 53-37, and that takes into account a sizeable 23-9 advantage on the offensive glass. All five starters reached double figures for the Saints, with Edwin Ubiles and his 20 points leading the way. Ryan Rossiter notched a double-double with 16 points and 15 boards, and Kenny Hasbrouck tallied 12 points and nine boards. Moore finished with 11 points and six assists, while Alex Franklin recorded a double-double of his own with 10 points and 13 rebounds. On the season, Ubiles tops the roster in scoring at 14.8 ppg and Hasbrouck his hot on his trail with 14.7 ppg. Franklin contributes 13.5 ppg and 7.5 rpg, and Rossiter adds 10.2 ppg and a team-best 8.0 rpg to the mix.

After leading just 35-33 at the half, the Cardinals opened the second stanza with a 22-6 run to seize control and coast to the 74-54 win over Morehead State on Friday. Louisville shot a sizzling 58.0 percent from the floor and made good on 10-of-24 attempts from long distance. Freshman Samardo Samuels paced the team with 15 points and seven boards, while Terrance Williams had 13 points and nine rebounds. Earl Clark posted 12 points and five boards and he leads the team in both of those departments with 14.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg on the season. Williams ranks second to him with 12.4 ppg and 8.5 rpg, but he tops the club with 5.0 apg and 82 steals. Samuels checks in with 12.0 ppg and 4.7 rpg for the Cardinals, who are limiting teams to just 61.4 ppg on the season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

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"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.

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