Royals welcome Orioles to Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of last-place teams seeking to end lengthy losing streaks begin a four-game series tonight at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium, where the slumping Royals hope to get well at the expense of the lowly Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore enters this evening's clash having lost five consecutive games and owns the worst record in the majors at 31-70. The Orioles have been especially bad since the All-Star break, compiling an awful 2-11 mark to begin the second half.

The Orioles' three most recent defeats came on the road at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, including a 5-0 setback in Wednesday's series finale. Baltimore mustered a mere three hits off rookie Brad Mills and three Jays relievers in suffering its 12th consecutive loss to Toronto this season.

"We've been through this all season against these guys," said Orioles manager Juan Samuel. "We gotta make better adjustments in games and try and get it done."

Baltimore's lack of offense spoiled a strong showing from starter Jeremy Guthrie (4-11), with the right-hander limiting the Blue Jays to one unearned run over seven innings in a hard-luck loss. Reliever Will Ohman gave up a three-run homer to Lyle Overbay as Toronto scored four times in the bottom of the eighth to break open the contest.

Kansas City will attempt to rebound from a forgettable last few days in which the club has lost four straight games and received atrocious pitching during the slide. The Royals allowed a whopping 42 runs over the first three defeats, then received another shaky performance out of Brian Bannister in yesterday's 6-4 loss to visiting Minnesota.

The Twins jumped out to a commanding 5-0 lead over the first four innings and held off a late Kansas City comeback attempt to complete a sweep of the three- game series.

"We gave them a [five] run lead and that helped their pitcher relax and do what he had to do," said Royals manager Ned Yost. "It just puts too much pressure on us when that happens."

Bannister (7-10) lost his fourth straight start after being tagged for five runs and 11 hits over the first six innings.

Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist had RBI singles during a two-run fifth inning for Kansas City, and Rick Ankiel pulled the Royals within 5-4 with a two-RBI base hit in the bottom of the eighth. Ankiel and Bloomquist each finished with a pair of hits in a losing cause.

Scott Podsednik went 2-for-5 in what turned out to be his final game in a Royals uniform. Kansas City traded the veteran outfielder to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a pair of minor-leaguers. Podsednik was batting .310 with 30 stolen bases and was riding a 15-game hitting streak at the time of the deal.

Although Royals pitchers have certainly had their problems as of late, the team has prevailed in each of Kyle Davies' last four starts and the inconsistent hurler has generally performed well over that stretch. The right- hander allowed seven runs over a combined 20 2/3 innings of work in recording three straight no-decisions to begin July, and enters tonight's test off his first victory in nearly two months.

Davies was reached for four runs and served up three homers in Saturday's matchup with the New York Yankees, but received a wealth of offensive support in Kansas City's 7-4 verdict over the defending world champions. He had not won in eight straight starts that followed a May 28 besting of Boston.

The 26-year-old hasn't won at home since April 26, though, and is just 1-4 with a 5.11 earned run average in eight trips to the Kauffman Stadium mound so far this season.

Davies will be attempting to duplicate a mid-May triumph over the Orioles in which he held tonight's opponent to two runs in six innings. He's 2-1 in four overall encounters with Baltimore, but has registered a poor 6.65 ERA over those games.

While Davies was able to end a lengthy winless drought his last time out, Baltimore's Brian Matusz has had trouble coming out on top all throughout his difficult 2009 campaign. The preseason Rookie of the Year candidate takes the hill tonight having lost 11 of 12 decisions since starting out the season with a pair of victories.

Matusz seemed to get back on track when he fired seven shutout innings to defeat Boston on July 4, but the highly-regarded lefty has gone 0-2 with a brutal 12.10 ERA in three starts since. He gave up three runs in five innings of a loss to Minnesota last Saturday, still a major improvement over a horrid 1 2/3-inning stint against Toronto in which the former first-round draft pick was shelled for six runs on five hits.

This will be the first career start against the Royals for Matusz, who's notched all three of his wins this season on the road.

These teams split a pair of meetings in Baltimore back in May, as well as a four-game series held at Kauffman Stadium last season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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